Incorporating Risk Analysis Into Spreadsheet Forecasts

by Douglas L. Wentworth, Harris County MTA, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Microcomputer Applications in Transportation III

Abstract: The risk analysis technique presented overcomes the difficulties of sensitivity analysis by entering key input variables as probability distributions, rather than as discreet values. Using a well established technique called Monte Carlo Simulation, the analyst can easily modify his forecasting model to produce the bottom line results as a probability distribution also. This paper discusses the title subject by presenting a description of the model layout and application, and considerations in using risk analysis.

Subject Headings: Risk management | Forecasting | Spreadsheets | Sensitivity analysis | Model analysis | Transportation studies | Probability | Computer models | Probability distribution | Europe | Monaco | Monte Carlo

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