Forecast Uncertainty in Reservoir Operationby Mohammad Karamouz, Pratt Inst, United States,
Abstract: Bayesian decision theory can be of significant value to reservoir operation because of its flexibility in being able to incorporate new information and/or opinions and judgments of decision makers or operators in the interpretation of probability. The Bayesian model developed in this study will provide a considerably more realistic approach to the input of forecast data in reservoir management. By including a real time posterior probability processors, forecasts can be continuously updated to comply with current conditions.
Subject Headings: Reservoirs | Hydrologic models | Forecasting | Probability | Water resources | Bayesian analysis | Information management | Model analysis
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