Bayesian Procedure for Evaluation of Containment Capabilityby J. C. Tsai, Walker, D. H., Walker, D. H.,
D. H. Walker, Walker, D. H., Walker, D. H.,
Abstract: The functional requirements of a steel or concrete containment is to maintain the structural integrity as well as the leak-tight integrity of its pressure boundary under specified design basis loadings. In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant, additional loadings beyond the design basis are also considered in the analysis. In PRA studies performed so far, the Bayesian estimation technique was used extensively in calculating core melt frequencies and also, to a certain extent, in the seismic fragility analyses. However, for assessments of containment subjected to accident pressure loads, failure criteria were mainly based on ultimate capacities of the containment at rupture. Analyses based on probabilistic leakage limits have just begun to be considered. The Bayesian procedure is a well established statistical tool by which existing data and also engineering judgments can be systematically incorporated into a probabilistic failure analysis. Furthermore, when new evidence becomes available, the method can be used to update the analysis automatically. This paper describes how the existing Bayesian methodology might be applied for estimating the containment leakage probabilities in a PRA study.
Subject Headings: Bayesian analysis | Probability | Leakage | Failure analysis | Load factors | Risk management | Domain boundary | Power plants
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