When and How Can You Specify a Probability Distribution When You Don't Know Much?
This paper presents an excerpt from the proceedings of the above-named workshop, and gives an overview of both the workshop and the proceedings. Five papers with diverse and complementary...

A Theoretical Framework for Risk Assessment
This paper puts forth a theoretical framework for the development of any risk model. The focus is on the distinction between model and parameter uncertainty....

Risk-Based Analysis for Flood Damage Reduction
The traditional approach of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to flood damage reduction studies is compared to risk-based analysis, a method of performing studies in which uncertainty in...

Quantifying Flood Damage Uncertainty
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) has adopted a risk-based analysis procedure to analyze the effect of uncertainty on flood damages and the benefits of flood damage reduction projects....

Risk-Based Budgeting for Maintenance Dredging
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers must estimate the budget required to conduct maintenance dredging at hundreds of sites across the country. The amount of funds needed to do the maintenance...

Developments in Risk Analysis Commercial Software
There has been a marked increase in the number and type of commercial software packages available to support risk and uncertainty analysis. Monte Carlo simulations, the first such tool,...

Uncertainty versus Computer Response Time
Interactive on-line presentation of risk analysis results with immediate `what if' capability is now possible with available microcomputer technology. This can provide an effective means...

Behavioral, Social, and Institutional Aspects of Risk Analysis
The paper summarizes the third session of the conference which discussed four items that become pitfalls for decision makers when neglected. These are parameter uncertainties as distinct...

Breakout Session 3B: Traffic Projections and Uncertainties

Predictability and Sensitivity of Groundwater Transport Models
The uncertainty associated with predictions made by solute transport models in groundwater environments must be carefully evaluated to address spatial and time variability as well as data...

Uncertainties in the Prediction of Hurricane Windspeeds

Treatment of Uncertainty in the NRC Regulatory Process

The MOUSE Uncertainty Analysis System
MOUSE (Modular Oriented Uncertainty SystEm) is a Monte Carlo based simulation system designed to deal with the problem of uncertainties in Environmental engineering calculations, such...

Practical Approach to Cope with Construction Cost Uncertainty in an Inflationary Environment
There are actions suggested to mitigate the risk in costs caused by an inflationary economy, such as escalation clauses and including price contingencies in the bid . This paper presents...

Factors Controlling Strong Ground Motion and Their Associated Uncertainties
Of special interest in strong ground motion modeling is a quantification of the degree of influence specific physical parameters have on the computed motions. Associated with the model...

Recent Improvements in the LLNL PSHA Methodology
For the purpose of comparison, the LLNL PSHA methodology is defined as the 1989 version developed under contract for the NRC. Additional work on a series of subsequent projects for DOE...

Fatigue of Floating Offshore Structures: Modelling Uncertainty in Hydrodynamics and Fatigue Properties
For floating offshore structures such as tension leg platforms (TLPs), one form of loading uncertainty is due to nonlinear diffraction forces, which can excite lightly damped vertical...

Simulating the Behavior of Natural Geological Systems: Sources of Uncertainty and Bias
Post-closure performance assessments are used, in conjunction with controlled laboratory experiments and observations on natural systems, to generate confidence that a radioactive waste...

Stochastic Modelling of Groundwater Flow at the WIPP Site
A stochastic approach to modelling the groundwater flow in the vicinity of the WIPP site in New Mexico is described. A geostatistical model of the transmissivity of the Culebra dolomite...

Biological Modeling in the Columbia Basin: An Organized Approach to Dealing with Uncertainty
Development of the Columbia River basin has had a profound impact on its natural resources, particularly species of Pacific Salmon. Passage of the Northwest Power Act of 1980 put in motion...

 

 

 

 

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