Probabilistic Observation Method for Settlement-Based Design of a Landfill Cover
Uncertainties in subsurface conditions make predicting total and differential settlement a difficult task. The Observation Method, which is commonly implemented to acquire additional knowledge...
When and How Can You Specify a Probability Distribution When You Don't Know Much?
This paper presents an excerpt from the proceedings of the above-named workshop, and gives an overview of both the workshop and the proceedings. Five papers with diverse and complementary...
A Theoretical Framework for Risk Assessment
This paper puts forth a theoretical framework for the development of any risk model. The focus is on the distinction between model and parameter uncertainty....
Uncertainty and Time Preference in Shore Protection
From a review of economic, psychologic, and geographic literature, three points of criticism of the economic model of choice are 1) when faced with losses, individuals tend not to be averse...
Subjective De-Biasing of Data Sets: A Bayesian Approach
In this paper, we examine the relevance of data sets (for instance, of past incidents) for risk management decisions when there are reasons to believe that all types of incidents have...
Risk-Based Budgeting for Maintenance Dredging
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers must estimate the budget required to conduct maintenance dredging at hundreds of sites across the country. The amount of funds needed to do the maintenance...
Developments in Risk Analysis Commercial Software
There has been a marked increase in the number and type of commercial software packages available to support risk and uncertainty analysis. Monte Carlo simulations, the first such tool,...
Federal Risk Management Policy: Where Is the Federal Government Heading? Where Are the Problems?
The paper summarizes the first session of the conference which discussed the present state and problems of federal risk management policy. Topics discussed include efficacy of models on...
A Probability Based Approach to the Design and Operation of Soil Vapor Extraction Systems
Soil vapor extraction (SVE) or soil venting is related with Monte Carlo simulation of critical soil characteristics. The correlation yielded a probability based nomograph that may be utilized...
On Measurements of Particle Spinning Motion
Investigation of particle saltation motion is crucial to the development of the theory of bed load transport. Due to the combination effects of the bed roughness and the velocity gradient,...
Effect of Data Sampling Time Resolution on Probability Distribution of Elapsed Time Between Rainfalls
The elapsed time between rainfalls is useful information in statistical forecasting of rainfall and runoff. The probability density function (pdf) of the elapsed time can be determined...
Analysis of Selected Prototype Wave and Runup Data
An investigation of wave runup using video camera technology at Duck, N.C. is discussed. Results are provided from a subset of the runup experiment and wave runup level probability density...
Stochastic Control With Bounded Sample Paths: An Application to Reservoir Systems
The consideration of at least the first two statistical moments for the storage volumes of a reservoir system is crucial in an analysis aimed at determining the optimal operations policies...
Evaluation of Six Methods for the LP3 Distribution
Six frequently used estimation methods for the Log-Pearson type 3 distribution were evaluated using both the predictive and the descriptive performance indices. Ten LP3 populations and...
Performance Goal Based Seismic Design Criteria for High Level Waste Repository Facilities
This paper proposes a set of deterministic seismic design and evaluation criteria based upon a specified probabilistic seismic performance goal for High Level Waste Repository (HLWR) facilities....
Assessment of the Potential for Tectonic Fault Rupture for High-Level Nuclear Waste Repositories
Active faults that extend to or near the Earth's surface may threaten the safety of engineered structures. The threat can be mitigated by appropriate siting and design, which requires...
Probabilistic Analysis of Faulting Associated with Earthquakes for Nuclear Waste Repositories
The probabilistic analysis of seismogenic faulting follows the same general methodology as the more common seismic hazard analysis for shaking. The main difference lies in the influence...
Probabilistic Seismic Design Considerations for a High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository
Earthquakes in the vicinity of an underground high-level waste (HLW) repository have potential effects that must be estimated during the design of the facility. The production facilities...
Current Plans to Characterize the Design Basis Ground Motion at the Yucca Mountain, Nevada Site
A site at Yucca Mountain Nevada is currently being studied to assess its suitability as a potential host site for the nation's first commercial high level waste repository. The DOE has...
Modal Failure Probability and System Performance
It is pointed out that the modal failure probability, i.e., the probability that a structure fails in a particular mode, cannot be uniquely defined under the time-invariant framework....
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