Risk of Extreme and Catastrophic Events
Assessing the extreme tails of a probability distribution, where events of very low probability can nevertheless lead to catastrophic outcomes, is one of the most widely discussed and...
Averaging Time and Maximum Speeds in Hurricanes
This paper discuses wind speed data obtained during Hurricane Andrew around Miami International Airport, at six anemometer locations which make up the wind shear warning network. Data...
Probabilistic Evaluation of Human Perception Threshold of Horizontal Vibration of Buildings (0.125Hz to 6.0Hz)
Vibration perception tests are conducted both for low frequencies of high-rise buildings and high frequencies of low-rise residential buildings. The vibration frequency is varied from...
Wind Deflection Probability Analysis
A statistical analysis is performed which analyses the probability of various magnitudes of deflections of a cable-stayed roof occurring due to wind uplift. Extensive wind analyses were...
Seismic Issues in Structural Engineering Codes and Practice
It is necessary that we view the seismic events in an overall probabilistic mode and determine the criteria for acceptable damage at various levels of service in the building. We need...
A Probabilistic Approach to the Response of Tall Buildings to Wind Loadings
Tall buildings constructed in recent years are light in weight, flexible and low in damping. This is the consequence of using lighter material with higher strength, and fewer interior...
Extreme Winds Estimation by `Peaks Over Threshold' and Epochal Methods
With a view to applying the 'peaks over threshold' method to the estimation of extreme wind sped data, we perform Monte Carlo simulations for which the parameters of the population distributions...
Fast Monte Carlo Simulations and Safety Index Checking
This paper presents recent techniques which require a small number of simulations to assess the structural reliability. They combine both the concept of importance zones in the random...
EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program: Availability of Broad-Scale Environmental Data and Opportunities for Use in Environmental Modeling Applications
The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment and Program (EMAP) has collected a suite of environmental data over a four year period from estuarine systems in the mid-Atlantic and Gulf of...
Estimation of Directional Spectra by ML/ME-Methods
The paper discusses the statistical Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Entropy (ME) methods for estimation of directional wave spectra. A combined ML/ME method is derived, and a reduced version...
Joint Probability of Superelevated Water Levels and Wave Heights at Duck, North Carolina
Storm events are typically classified as a percent occurrence or return interval based on their peak storm elevation. The stage is the combination of storm surge, astronomical tide and...
The Determination of Typhoon Design Wave By Synthetic Probibility Method
In summer and autumn, typhoons always take place in the northwest pacific. in the northern hemisphere, the typhoon is a large, anticlockwise, atmospheric eddy. Due to the strong wind speed,...
Joint Probability Distribution of Rainfall Intensity and Duration
Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are widely used for peak discharge estimation in designing hydraulic structures. Accurate interpolated and extrapolated intensity values are difficult...
Probabilistic Characterization of Droughts
The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) uses a set of meteorologic and hydrologic variables to create a numerical value for drought severity. The index values are grouped into drought...
Instream Flow Policy: An Alternative to Minimum Flowby
The limitations of current instream flow policies based on the concept of minimum flowby are discussed. An alternative policy based on sharing the available resource among competing uses...
Uncertainty in Reservoir Operation Optimisation
The water resources literature is rich with the application of optimisation techniques in the presence of uncertainty. This paper presents a brief overview of the various ways uncertainty...
Considering Uncertainties in Water Resource Designs
Design of water resource systems often faces with various uncertainties. The nature of problems in essence are decision making under uncertainties. This paper offers an introduction to...
Willingness-to-Pay for Alternative Shortage Probability Distributions
Mathematical programming is used to derive estimates of the willingness-to-pay of water service customers for improvements in water supply reliability. Reliability is represented as a...
A Regional Model of Daily Streamflow for the Northeast United States
A regional flow duration curve (FDC) model is under development which relates daily streamflow at 166 unregulated basins in the northeastern U.S. to watershed and climatic characteristics....
Probabilistic Modeling of Scheduling Uncertainty: Methods and Tools
This paper provides an overview of probabilistic project scheduling methodologies and tools. It emphasizes the practical application of Monte Carlo simulation in modeling activity durations....
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