A Light in the Deep: The Future of Offshore Site Investigations
For deep-water energy developments, hazard identification and risk assessments (that is, assessing the probability of occurrence along with the consequences of failure) are more important...
Geotechnical Reliability � Ten Unresolved Problems
Geotechnical engineering deals with a world in which assured solutions seldom apply, and in which the famed early practitioners spoke proudly of accommodating uncertainty and judgment....
Probabilistic Analysis of Long-Term Aquifer Recharge
Long-term time series of aquifer recharge and other aquifer fluxes (aquifer discharge, groundwater extraction) are essential to monitor and understand aquifer processes. This paper presents...
Degrees of Belief
Subjective Probability and Engineering Judgment
Probabilistic Simplified and Detailed Subsurface Drainage Water Quality Modeling of Nitrate Leaching
A transparent uncertainty structure is derived for simplified and detailed conceptual nitrate leaching as a result of a probabilistic modelling procedure. The uncertainty structure consists...
Predicting Droughts for the South Platte River System
In this paper we apply probability theory and stochastic processes to determine drought properties, particularly drought duration. Spccilicslly, we model the sequences of wet and dry years...
A Framework for Performance-Based Seismic Design
The following probabilistic framework for seismic performance assessment is presented as an effective foundation for the development of performance-based guidelines. It suggests a generic...
New Parameters to Model Ground Motions
The paper presents three new parameters to characterize earthquake-induced ground motions. All three parameters evolve from the concept of response spectra, and are termed 3D response...
Order Amid Uncertainty (Available in Geoenvironmental special issue only)
Bayesian statistical methods allow engineers to deduce probabilities from incomplete information. If there is a theoretical or empirical reason why a particular probability distribution...
Fuzzy Rule-Based Forecasting of Extreme Rainfall Probability Conditioned on Sea Surface Temperature
(No paper) The recent El Nino event demonstrated the importance of sea-surface temperature on rainfall anomalies. The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology to forecast extreme...
Inviting Trouble Downstream
When dam-building advocates, representing power generation, irrigation and flood control interests, get their project built, flood control ranks third in priority. Soon, development encroaches...
Genetic Algorithms for the Design of Groundwater Remediation Systems
The performance of genetic algorithms (GAs) to solve optimal aquifer remediation design problems is investigated. Some difficulties associated with GA models include premature convergence,...
Guist Creek Dam Spillway Upgrade: A Maze (Labyrinth) of Difficulties
Any dam that holds back a large quantity of water is potentially dangerous. Some dams are more of a threat than others, especially those with human populations and valuable property in...
Using Probabilistic Balancing Rules in the Development of Multi-Purpose Multi-Reservoir Systems Operation Models
This paper focuses on the development of short-term (real-time) reservoir operation strategies by the incorporation of Probabilistic Balancing Rules (PBR). Probabilistic Balancing Rule...
Forcing Function and Climate Change
A system framework for investigating the effect of climate change in the upper Rio-Grande river basin, New Mexico, is developed. The forcing function or input into a climate change model...
Probabilistic Approach for Cancer Risk Assessment
Carcinogenic chemicals have entered ground water systems from surface spills and leaching from subsurface disposal sites. Of particular interest in this study was the contaminant tetrachioroethylene...
Construction of Performance Contours on the Storage-Yield Plane of a Within-Year Reservoir System
The reservoir storage-reliability-yield (S-R-Y) relationships developed in the past have considered only the probability of failure to meet the target requirements, but not the likely...
Comparison of Worst-Case and Probabilistic Approaches to Ocean Outfall Mixing Zone Analysis
Two approaches have been used for ocean outfall mixing zone analysis: worst-case approach and probabilistic approach. This paper discusses some advantages and disadvantages of the worst-case...
An Economy and Risk Analysis of Installed Capacity Expansion at the Three Gorges Power Plant
This paper studies the possibility and economy of peak-regulation operation during flood period at the Three Gorges reservoir, which will at the same time satisfy the requirements for...
Engineering Mechanics
This proceedings,
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