Structural Optimization Under Conditions of Uncertainty, with Reference to Serviceability and Ultimate Limit States
Probability concepts and methods are rapidly gaining ground in the search for more rational approaches to structural optimization. Under conditions of uncertainty, the risk of unfavorable...
Reliability Constraint on Optimum Design
The purpose of the paper is to emphasize the importance of the probability concern on optimum design work. The probability of failure of the structure can be considered as one of the optimum...
The Credibility of Probabilities: An Application to Water Resources Policy
This paper focuses on one particularly troublesome issue in decision analysis, the issue of the credibility of subjective probabilities. A water resources policy problem is used to illustrate...
The Status of Risk Analysis in Water Resources Engineering
Acceptance of probabilistically based risk-analysis evaluation methods among water resources engineers is rather slow, as it is among other engineering specialities. Academic researchers...
Fuzzy Sets Bring Ideas Into Focus
Fuzzy set theory was born out of a dissatisfaction with classical crisp sets and binary logic. Conventional computers, despite 30 years of evolution, are still rigidly precise, number...
Uncertainty and Conservatism in the Seismic Analysis of Nuclear Facilities
Traditionally, seismic analysis and design of nuclear power plant structures are performed using deterministic procedures. In order to address the issue of the likelihood of failure, probabilistic...
Influence of Surface Conditions on Surface Temperature
Geotechnical engineers working in areas of discontinuous permafrost are frequently faced with the necessity of designing facilities with a minimum of thermal disturbance. Construction...
Lifeline Risk Analyses: The Mokelumne Aqueduct Study
Probabilistic risk analysis methods are applied to the evaluation of seismic and non-seismic vulnerability of a 25-kilometer length of a major lifeline aqueduct system. In addition to...
An Interactive Model for Project Planning and Scheduling
This paper presents the development and use of an interactive, microcomputer-based model for project planning and scheduling. The model is general enough to handle both deterministic (CPM-based)...
Computer Use in Structural Analysis
Acquisition of computer hardware and software in order to establish distributed processing and a local area network at the Air Force Weapons Lab has greatly streamlined two structural...
Lognormality of Point and Non-Point Source Pollutant Concentrations
This paper presents a series of probability plots of water quality data from a variety of discharge sources. It is intended to provide a visual display of the appropriateness of characterizing...
Recent Developments in Structural Optimization
This publication contains seven papers that emphasize the recent findings of mathematical formulations, numerical results, and algorithms in structural optimization. Among them, two deal...
Trouble in Our Own Back Yard
One million tanks will leak toxic and hazardous substances into the U.S. soil within the next four years. Prevention begins with rapid discovery and probability analysis. Various cleanup...
Analysis of a Production Well Through Sediments Containing Gas Hydrates
In some of the petroleum reservoirs recently discovered north of the Arctic Circle, production wells extend through thick permafrost. Several authors have reported zones of gas hydrate...
Probabilistic Description of Ice Forces on an Offshore Arctic Structure
A probabilistic simulation model has been developed to describe the frequency and outcome of multi-year ice floe encounters with a fixed offshore structure located in the Beaufort Sea,...
Selection of Environmental Design Criteria for Arctic Structures
Where data are insufficient for calculation of extremes using probability theory, design criteria may be reasonable defined by combining available data, knowledge of physical processes...
Probabilistic Approaches to Arctic Offshore Engineering
The arctic offshore environment poses challenges in design, site construction, and operation that range from the problems associated with large ice forces, to those of short open-water...
Probabilistic Design of Gravity Foundations for Arctic Offshore Structures
The use of the probabilistic simulation technique to estimate the variability of the resistance and the ice load on arctic gravity structures is illustrated in order to assess the safety...
Route Thaw Settlement: A Probabilistic Evaluation
A methodology is outlined for assessing potential differential thaw settlement effects on structures due to permafrost degradation along transportation routes in the offshore, nearshore,...
Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Critical Facilities
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for seismic events is currently being performed for nuclear power plants. The background on seismic PRA is presented along with a basic description...
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