Failure Probability Estimation of Series Systems
In this paper, an approximation scheme is presented for analysis of series structural systems where no exact solution exists. If the safety indices of the individual failure functions...
Probabilistic Design of Offshore Structural Systems
Probabilistic design of structural systems is considered in this paper. The reliability is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The design problem is formulated as the...
Response of Structural Systems with Uncertain Parameters: A Comparative Study of Probabilistic and Fuzzy Sets Models
Due to the limitation in space, this paper only presents the conclusions of a study on the response of structures with uncertain properties such as mass, stiffness and damping. In the...
Practical Implementation of Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Many techniques for seismic probabilistic risk assessment have been developed by university researchers over the last decade. This paper reports on a study being conducted to determine...
Autoregressive Model of Spatially Propagating Earthquake Ground Motion
An autoregressive random process model was used to investigate a simulation method of spatially and temporally variative ground motion when characteristics of motion are prescribed by...
MA to ARMA Two-Stage Monte Carlo Simulation
A prior autoregressive (AR) model can be the basis to obtain a quite eficient and reliable subsequent autoregressive moving average (ARMA) approximation. The design of the AR system which...
One Solution for Different Stochastic Systems
It is shown that different dynamic systems under different sets of random excitations can share an identical probabilistic solution. Such systems are said to be stochastically equivalent,...
Variability Analysis of Bridge Responses Using the Semi-Continuum Method
The semi-continuum method is used for Monte Carlo simulation of a large number of bridges. It is confirmed that the mean values of responses can be obtained deterministically, and their...
System Reliability Using Expert Opinion
The objective of the study on which this paper is based was to determine the safe performance of several different interior gas piping systems. This paper describes the piping systems...
Experiences with Applications of Importance Sampling in Structural Reliability Computations
This paper presents some experiences and observations relating to the use of importance sampling in structural systems reliability computations. These are presented with three examples,...
Effects of Nonlinearities on Structural Reliability and Serviceability
Serviceability and failure limit states are computed using the Simple Plastic Theory (SPT) as well as with a Nonlinear Structural Analysis Program (NSAP). Geometric and material nonlinearities...
Dynamic Response of Tall Buildings to Wind Loads
The purpose of this study is to perform a probabilistic analysis of tall buildings subjected to wind excitation. A time domain simulation is first applied to the nonlinear problem. After...
A Tower-Like Structure with Distributed Stiffness, Mass and Plastic Zones Under Random Earthquake Loading
Random vibrations of an elastoplastic structure are treated by taking into account the finite spread of plastic zones as well as the effects of distributed mass and stiffness. Solution...
Probabilistic Structural Response of a Turbopump Blade to Random Pulse Loading
The objective of this work is to develop probabilistic models of the response of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) turbopump blade to random impact loading. These loads are caused by...
A Probabilistic Comparative Study of Various Base Isolation Systems?Nonstationary Earthquake Excitation
A probabilistic comparative study of various base isolation systems is carried out. The laminated rubber bearing with and without lead plug, the resilient-friction, and the EDF base isolation...
Efficient Methods in Time Dependent Reliability
A general and efficient method is presented for computing failure probabilities for components and systems where the uncertainties are represented by a mixture of random variables and...
Quantifying Quality Improvement Programs
Structural codes are evolving to a limit state design basis in which the safety checks are derived from the underlying probability distributions of strength and loads. An example safety...
Engineering Reliability: The Organizational Link
Organizational factors may significantly affect systems' reliability, but they are not typically included in modeling. This paper discusses how the stochastic models of system...
Bayesian Updating of Seismic Fragilities of Nuclear Power Plant Components
Seismic fragility is represented by a curve of the conditiional probability of failure as a function of the peak ground acceleration. Since there are many uncertainties in the model and...
Rainflow Cycles in Nonstationary Gaussian Processes
This paper develops a methodology for calculating the probability distribution for rainflow cycles in a nonstationary Gaussian process. The up- and downcrossing rates are estimated for...
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