Risk-Based Budgeting for Maintenance Dredging
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers must estimate the budget required to conduct maintenance dredging at hundreds of sites across the country. The amount of funds needed to do the maintenance...
Developments in Risk Analysis Commercial Software
There has been a marked increase in the number and type of commercial software packages available to support risk and uncertainty analysis. Monte Carlo simulations, the first such tool,...
Uncertainty versus Computer Response Time
Interactive on-line presentation of risk analysis results with immediate `what if' capability is now possible with available microcomputer technology. This can provide an effective means...
Behavioral, Social, and Institutional Aspects of Risk Analysis
The paper summarizes the third session of the conference which discussed four items that become pitfalls for decision makers when neglected. These are parameter uncertainties as distinct...
Predictability and Sensitivity of Groundwater Transport Models
The uncertainty associated with predictions made by solute transport models in groundwater environments must be carefully evaluated to address spatial and time variability as well as data...
Serviceability of Earth Retaining Structures
Civil Engineers increasingly face decisions concerning the serviceability of existing earth retaining structures. Serviceability limit states describe the functional disruption which occurs...
Factors Controlling Strong Ground Motion and Their Associated Uncertainties
Of special interest in strong ground motion modeling is a quantification of the degree of influence specific physical parameters have on the computed motions. Associated with the model...
Recent Improvements in the LLNL PSHA Methodology
For the purpose of comparison, the LLNL PSHA methodology is defined as the 1989 version developed under contract for the NRC. Additional work on a series of subsequent projects for DOE...
Fatigue of Floating Offshore Structures: Modelling Uncertainty in Hydrodynamics and Fatigue Properties
For floating offshore structures such as tension leg platforms (TLPs), one form of loading uncertainty is due to nonlinear diffraction forces, which can excite lightly damped vertical...
Assessing Fault Rupture Hazard for the Proposed Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada: Demonstration of a Methodology Using Expert Judgments
As part of the Electric Power Research Institute's High Level Waste (EPRI HLW) performance assessment, we have developed and demonstrated a methodology to estimate the magnitude and likelihood...
Simulating the Behavior of Natural Geological Systems: Sources of Uncertainty and Bias
Post-closure performance assessments are used, in conjunction with controlled laboratory experiments and observations on natural systems, to generate confidence that a radioactive waste...
Stochastic Modelling of Groundwater Flow at the WIPP Site
A stochastic approach to modelling the groundwater flow in the vicinity of the WIPP site in New Mexico is described. A geostatistical model of the transmissivity of the Culebra dolomite...
Characterization of Uncertainty in Reservoir Operations
The development of operating policies for complex reservoir systems typically requires a consideration of various system component interrelationships and several conflicting operating...
Imprecise Probability and Water Resources Decisions
In water resources engineering weak information would correspond to circumstances when the record is extremely short relative to the mean rate of occurrence of important design events,...
Multiple Objectives, Uncertainty and Routing Decisions for Hazardous Materials Shipments
Explicit consideration of multiple objectives and uncertainty is important in hazardous materials transportation, particularly in regulating routes or making routing decisions. Application...
Computer Aided Learning of System Reliability Assessment
Good education should foster an awareness of the probabilistic nature of the real world. Insensitivity to, or inability to acknowledge and analyze, uncertainties of this world can lead...
Uncertainty in Economic Evaluation of Upgrading Gravel Surface Roads
Many highway links in the world are still gravel surfaced. As traffic volumes increase, the demand for upgrading these surface also increases. The challenge to highway infrastructure management...
Addressing Uncertainties in Flexible Pavement Maintenance Decisions at Project Level Using Bayesian Influence Diagrams
Bayesian influence diagrams are directed acyclic graphs used as a network representation for making decisions under uncertainty. These representation facilitate the assessment of coherent...
Infrastructure Planning in Beirut, Lebanon
This paper presents a comprehensive framework for structuring the decision process of planning for transportation infrastructure rehabilitation and development in the city of Beirut, Lebanon....
Identifying a New Role of the Future Planner
It has been amply demonstrated over the last three decades that public planning is subject to great uncertainties, both in dealing with new technologies as well as in dealing with fuzzy...
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