Probabilistic Models of Fatigue Crack Growth
The reliability of a structure against metal fatigue is a problem that has been of concern to engineers for a very long time. This problem was one of the first to be approached probabilistically,...
Applications of Fiber Bundle Model to Structural Engineering
The bundle failure time has been studied extensively for both deterministic and random loads. The objective of this paper is to apply results in these studies to the dynamic analysis of...
Seismic Response Component in the Risk Assessment of Dams
The risk analysis model for dams that is discussed in this paper considers the probability of an initiating event and the following conditional probabilities of the system response, the...
Probability of Facility Damage From Extreme Wind Effects
A probabilistic methodology has been developed to assess the risks of extreme wind induced damage to structures and facilities. The wind effects considered include dynamic pressure, atmospheric...
New Directions in the Application of Probabilistic Concepts in the Seismic Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants
During the last 8 years, probabilistic concepts have been used in the seismic analysis of nuclear power plants. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been the primary vehicle for performing...
Electronic Computation
The papers included in this book were presented during the thirteen sessions of the Ninth ASCE Conference on Electronic Computation. Topics addressed represent a wide spectrum of computer...
Probabilistic Study of SPT Liquefaction Analysis
The influence of earthquake magnitude upon the commonly used correlation between Standard Penetration Test (SPT) blow count and liquefaction potential is evaluated using a probabilistic...
Modeling Dispersion in Non-Homogenous Formations
A stochastic model of contaminant mixing in non-homogeneous porous media has been developed. The model is three dimensional and relates the contaminant distribution to the probability...
On the Ship's Waterways Passing Through Bridges
This paper reports on a study of bridge openings that serve as waterways, in view of the analysis of ship collision accidents. For the purpose of this study, cases of ship collision accidents...
The Reliability of Treatment Systems
The purpose of this paper is to present the results of case studies of zero and first order reactor systems and an activated sludge treatment system consisting of a primary settling tank...
Model for Optimal-Risk Based Water Distribution Network Design
Various models using a variety of optimization techniques were developed for determining pipe diameters, network layout, pump capacities, and other design parameters. The objective function...
Guidelines for Maintenance of Aging Water Pipes
Break failure patterns are investigated by applying a new methodology based on Proportional hazards and Poisson-type models. Application on two water distribution systems of North-Eastern...
Probabilistic Limit States Design of Moment-Resistant Frames Under Seismic Loading
This paper focuses on the development of a methodology for the optimal probabilistic limit states design of seismic-resistant steel frames. A mechanism for allowing the designer to include...
Structural Optimization Under Conditions of Uncertainty, with Reference to Serviceability and Ultimate Limit States
Probability concepts and methods are rapidly gaining ground in the search for more rational approaches to structural optimization. Under conditions of uncertainty, the risk of unfavorable...
Reliability Constraint on Optimum Design
The purpose of the paper is to emphasize the importance of the probability concern on optimum design work. The probability of failure of the structure can be considered as one of the optimum...
The Credibility of Probabilities: An Application to Water Resources Policy
This paper focuses on one particularly troublesome issue in decision analysis, the issue of the credibility of subjective probabilities. A water resources policy problem is used to illustrate...
The Status of Risk Analysis in Water Resources Engineering
Acceptance of probabilistically based risk-analysis evaluation methods among water resources engineers is rather slow, as it is among other engineering specialities. Academic researchers...
Fuzzy Sets Bring Ideas Into Focus
Fuzzy set theory was born out of a dissatisfaction with classical crisp sets and binary logic. Conventional computers, despite 30 years of evolution, are still rigidly precise, number...
Uncertainty and Conservatism in the Seismic Analysis of Nuclear Facilities
Traditionally, seismic analysis and design of nuclear power plant structures are performed using deterministic procedures. In order to address the issue of the likelihood of failure, probabilistic...
Lifeline Risk Analyses: The Mokelumne Aqueduct Study
Probabilistic risk analysis methods are applied to the evaluation of seismic and non-seismic vulnerability of a 25-kilometer length of a major lifeline aqueduct system. In addition to...
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