Integration of Reliability, Uncertainty and Optimization in Hydraulics Systems: Classification of Problem Types
Design and operation of hydraulic systems can be an extremely complex task. Although not widely accepted the application of deterministic optimization techniques can provide guidance to...
Uncertainty in Reservoir Operation Optimisation
The water resources literature is rich with the application of optimisation techniques in the presence of uncertainty. This paper presents a brief overview of the various ways uncertainty...
Integration of Water Quantity and Quality Planning
This paper describes the integration of water quantity and quality objectives within the framework of a computerized interface design to assist with the difficult process of long-range...
Considering Uncertainties in Water Resource Designs
Design of water resource systems often faces with various uncertainties. The nature of problems in essence are decision making under uncertainties. This paper offers an introduction to...
Designing Under Uncertainty When We Can Reduce Uncertainty: When is Another Observation Worth the Cost?
A method is presented that optimizes the selection of sites for observation of an uncertain parameter when that parameter is used in the risk-based design of an engineered system. The...
Managing Uncertainty in Project Planning and Execution: Introduction and Overview
This paper provides an introduction and overview of topics that are relevant to project design and management under conditions of uncertainty, with an emphasis on civil engineering projects....
Quantification of Cost Uncertainties Using Neural Network Technique
This paper describes the development of a neural network system for forecasting cost escalation in construction. The input of the neural network system consists of factors that have an...
Interpretive and Modelling Problems of Risk and Uncertainty in Bidding Techniques
This paper considers the implementation of policy, strategic and tactical bidding and the processes of devolution of the risk and uncertainty in a corporate management context....
Uncertain Reasoning in a Pavement Management System
A major objective of a Pavement Management System (PMS) is to assist highway engineers and managers in making consistent and cost effective decisions related to maintenance and rehabilitation...
The MOUSE Uncertainty Analysis System
MOUSE (Modular Oriented Uncertainty SystEm) is a Monte Carlo based simulation system designed to deal with the problem of uncertainties in Environmental engineering calculations, such...
Probabilistic Modeling of Scheduling Uncertainty: Methods and Tools
This paper provides an overview of probabilistic project scheduling methodologies and tools. It emphasizes the practical application of Monte Carlo simulation in modeling activity durations....
Risk-Based Management of Uncertainty During Project Planning and Execution
The Land Disposal Restrictions (LDRs) of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) are the critical technical standards for the establishment of compliance plans and schedules...
Practical Approach to Cope with Construction Cost Uncertainty in an Inflationary Environment
There are actions suggested to mitigate the risk in costs caused by an inflationary economy, such as escalation clauses and including price contingencies in the bid . This paper presents...
Probabilistic Observation Method for Settlement-Based Design of a Landfill Cover
Uncertainties in subsurface conditions make predicting total and differential settlement a difficult task. The Observation Method, which is commonly implemented to acquire additional knowledge...
When and How Can You Specify a Probability Distribution When You Don't Know Much?
This paper presents an excerpt from the proceedings of the above-named workshop, and gives an overview of both the workshop and the proceedings. Five papers with diverse and complementary...
A Theoretical Framework for Risk Assessment
This paper puts forth a theoretical framework for the development of any risk model. The focus is on the distinction between model and parameter uncertainty....
Uncertainty and Time Preference in Shore Protection
From a review of economic, psychologic, and geographic literature, three points of criticism of the economic model of choice are 1) when faced with losses, individuals tend not to be averse...
Bayes' Theorem and Quantitative Risk Assessment
This paper argues that for a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) to be useful for public and private decisionmaking, and for rallying the support necessary to implement those decisions, it...
Risk-Based Analysis for Flood Damage Reduction
The traditional approach of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to flood damage reduction studies is compared to risk-based analysis, a method of performing studies in which uncertainty in...
Quantifying Flood Damage Uncertainty
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) has adopted a risk-based analysis procedure to analyze the effect of uncertainty on flood damages and the benefits of flood damage reduction projects....
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