An Overview of the Implementation of PURPA
In November of 1978, Congress enacted a major piece of legislation that started a new direction in how energy resources in this country would be developed in the next decade. The Act,...
Incorporating Uncertainty in a Dynamic Structural Analysis
A methodology has been developed and exercised for taking into account parametric uncertainties in a structural dynamics analysis and providing an approximation of the probability of response....
Application of Expert Systems to Construction Management Decision-Making and Risk Analysis
Application of expert systems in the area of construction management decision-making and risk analysis are explored. Decision-making under uncertainty is one of the attributes of human...
DAPS: An Expert System for Damage Assessment of Protective Structures
An automated reasoning code for the damage assessment of protective structures (DAPS) is being developed within the Air Force. Protective structures in this context will be synonymous...
Damping in Tall Buildings: Its Variability and Treatment in Design
Increasingly, damping is being recognized as an important factor in the design of structures. It is at the same time a property which is relatively poorly defined, more acquired than engineered...
Uncertainties in Groundwater Transport Modeling
Using synthetic data from a hypothetical aquifer, the effects of data availability and data uncertainty were studied by the combined use of a parameter identification (PI) algorithm and...
A Robustness Constraint for the Analysis of Uncertainty
A sensitivity-based definition of system robustness is presented that can be formulated as a constraint within an optimization framework. The optimization framework permits the tradeoffs...
Structural Optimization Under Conditions of Uncertainty, with Reference to Serviceability and Ultimate Limit States
Probability concepts and methods are rapidly gaining ground in the search for more rational approaches to structural optimization. Under conditions of uncertainty, the risk of unfavorable...
The Credibility of Probabilities: An Application to Water Resources Policy
This paper focuses on one particularly troublesome issue in decision analysis, the issue of the credibility of subjective probabilities. A water resources policy problem is used to illustrate...
The Sociocultural Context of Coping with Risk and Uncertainty
In the context of the present conference, selected points will be underscored about the centrality of risk and uncertainty in contemporary society, aspects of judgment and decision making,...
The Risk Factor in Water Resources
Risk is inherent in nature and society, while uncertainty depends on investigations. Decision making in water resources is most often a deterministic selection of dimensions which divide...
A Methodology for Risk-Benefit Analysis of Lock-and-Dam Rehabilitation in the U.S. Corps of Engineers
The U. S. Army Corps Engineers operates and manages some 250 locks and dams in major rivers and ports throughout the U. S. At present, many of these structures are thirty-five to forty-five...
Fuzzy Sets Bring Ideas Into Focus
Fuzzy set theory was born out of a dissatisfaction with classical crisp sets and binary logic. Conventional computers, despite 30 years of evolution, are still rigidly precise, number...
Uncertainty and Conservatism in the Seismic Analysis of Nuclear Facilities
Traditionally, seismic analysis and design of nuclear power plant structures are performed using deterministic procedures. In order to address the issue of the likelihood of failure, probabilistic...
SIMSUPER5: Tunneling Construction Simulation
This paper presents SIMSUPER5 (SIMulation SUPERvisor version 5) a computer program developed to simulate the tunnel construction process under conditions of uncertainty. The program determines...
Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources
This book includes papers presented at the Engineering Foundation conference on Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources and at a session at the ASCE National Convention in Boston....
Iceberg Interactions with Offshore Structures
Various aspects include the component problems corresponding to iceberg drift in open water, iceberg drift in the vicinity of a large offshore structure, wave-induced motions of a berg,...
Probability of Stability Design of Open Pit Slopes
Uncertainty and risk have always been associated with mining. This is evidenced in the common mining terminology of proven ore, probable ore, and possible ore. From a geotechnical standpoint,...
Risk-Cost Analysis and Spillway Design
The NRC's recent report on dam safety proposes risk cost analysis to help select among alternative spillway modifications for existing dams. This paper examines the sensitivity...
Dried Sludge for Fertilizer
Dried sewage sludge has been used as a fertilizer material for several decades in the United States. While sludge drying and fertilizer production is normally more costly than other municipal...
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