Uncertainty in Climate Change and Drought
A series of projections of climate change were applied to a watershed model of the Delaware River basin to identify sources of uncertainty in predicting effects of climate change on drought...
Reliability Assessment Method for Flood Forecasts
Peak discharge predictions produced by rainfall-runoff models and used by flood warning and preparedness agencies are subject to uncertainties in the input data, model parameters, and...
Uncertainty Quantification in Water Distribution Parameter Estimation
Calibration for water distribution system model parameters is usually undertaken with a minimal amount of field measurements so additional pseudomeasurements are assumed. Both the actual...
Who Pays for the Unexpected in Construction?
Unexpected events of major concern result from voluntary risks taken by one or more of the parties to a construction contract. The party taking the risk should reap the reward or pay the...
Isotropic Fractionation During Air-Water Transfer of Oxygen and Nitrogen
We present empirical results that show the kinetic fractionation during gas exchange is 0.9972 ? .0002 for oxygen and 0.9987 ? .0001 for nitrogen. These values are larger than the solubility...
Loading Uncertainties in Extreme Waves
Uncertainties associated with extreme base shear forces and extreme overturning moments are estimated for an idealized eight-legged jacket platform. The structure is assumed to respond...
Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of an Offshore Structure
This paper develops and illustrates a methodology for multi-hazard modal risk assessment. The case study involves assessing risk to an offshore structure in a load environment consisting...
Practical Aspects of Structural Control
Several problems in the practical implementation of structural control are discussed herein. These problems include the prediction of the actual behavior of existing structures, mathematical...
Failure Prediction for Non-Linear Structural Systems
A method is described that makes failure predictions for structures which are complex, nonlinear and expensive to evaluate on a computer. The method makes use of a non-linear response...
Discrete Enforcement of Uncertain Oscillator Gaussian Response
A limited number of step-by-step procedures have been developed to recursively evaluate the response moments of uncertain systems. In several of these procedures, the recursive evaluation...
Potential Applicability of Mathematical Statistics in Stochastic Modelling of Failure Phenomena
Failure phenomena should be investigated clearly with a good understanding of engineering uncertainties associated with strength of the material as well as randomly applied load. In this...
Synthesis of Studies for the Potential of Fault Rupture at the Proposed Surface Facilities, Yucca Mountain, Nevada
Published data for the Midway Valley area, the proposed site of the surface facilities of a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, suggest that recognized regional faults...
Analysis and Evaluation of Regulatory Uncertainties in 10 CFR 60 Subparts B and E
An attribute analysis scheme is presented for for prioritizing the resolution of regulatory uncertainties. Attributes are presented which assist in identifying the importance, need for...
Transportation Cask Life Cycle Cost Uncertainty Analysis
This paper demonstrates an uncertainty analysis methodology using random sampling. This methodology has been applied to a nuclear waste transportation code, and several transportation...
Probabilistic Analysis of Maintenance Options
Maintenance usually means service disruption, repair cost and loss of production. This is especially true for structures or components which provide basic infrastructure services, such...
The Multi-Watfore Method: A Water Demand Forecasting System
The multi-Watfore method, which combines the cascade model and a first order analysis of uncertainty, is a system of practical steps to develop models of water demand while generating...
Tutorial: Fuzzy Set Theory in Water Resources Systems
Principles of using fuzzy set theory (FST) to describe imprecision (or vagueness) in water resources systems are provided. The main tool of FST, the membership function, measures the degree...
Risk Management for Groundwater Contamination: Fuzzy Set Approach
A methodology is developed for health risk management under uncertainty, using fuzzy sets. Groundwater nitrate contamination illustrates the methodology. A risk management framework is...
Bayesian Decision Theory and Fuzzy Sets Theory in Systems Operation
Operation of Water Resources Systems involves complex set of human decision. Many of the parameters involved in systems operations are random functions of time. Sometimes, the data needed...
Bayesian Decision Principles for Flood Warnings
A Bayesian theory of flood warning systems has been formulated. The theory offers principles for mathematical modeling of warning systems. The objectives of modeling are (i) to find the...
Return to search