Stochastic Population Projection at Design Level

by Peter M. Meier, Sr. Systems Analyst; Curran Assoc., Inc., Engrs. and Planners, Northampton, MA,

Serial Information: Journal of the Sanitary Engineering Division, 1972, Vol. 98, Issue 6, Pg. 883-896

Document Type: Journal Paper


A method for stochastic population projection for small areas is developed for use by consulting engineers as a basis for specifying the design capacity of pollution control facilities. Based on the components-of-change model for population growth and a formulation of demographic rates as first-order autoregressive processes, the proposed projection model specifies future population in terms of a probability distribution. Monte Carlo simulation rather than analytical solution is used to derive the probabilities. An analysis of the first results suggests a significant improvement in predictive accuracy over the traditional subjective or deterministic projection models still in widespread use by the environmental engineering profession.

Subject Headings: Autoregressive models | Stochastic processes | Population projection | Consulting services | Model accuracy | Engineering profession | Building design | Pollution | Monaco | Europe

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