Competitive Bidding: The Probability of Winning

by Neal B. H. Benjamin, Asst. Prof. of Civ. Engrg.; Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO,

Serial Information: Journal of the Construction Division, 1972, Vol. 98, Issue 2, Pg. 313-330

Document Type: Journal Paper


Current competitive bidding strategy models are reviewed critically with emphasis placed on similarities and differences between methods of valuating projects and between methods used to assess the probabilities of winning with different bids. A contractor's 3-yr bidding experience is analyzed. It is shown that a contractor does not, in general, have data of sufficient quantity and quality needed to use current bidding models. The validity of the use of classical single variable statistical analysis procedures is questioned.

Subject Headings: Bids | Probability | Contractors and subcontractors | Project management | Statistics

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