Spatial Statistics for Rainfall Forecasts Assessment

by Lynn E. Johnson,
Billy Olson,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: North American Water and Environment Congress & Destructive Water


Assessments of rainfall forecasts were developed using GIS-based spatial statistical procedures applied to calibrated radar-rainfall fields in central Oklahoma. The overall objective of the QPF assessment study was to determine the characteristics and accuracy of the consolidated QPF product developed by the ABRFC (Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center). Procedures for QPF assessment involved developing concurrent spatial data sets on the defined QPF and the Stage III radar-precipitation fields. The spatial data sets were characterized using univariate and frequency statistics tabulated for daily and 6-hour storm periods. A logical overlay procedure was used whereby the respective QPF and Stage III images were subtracted, and the resultant difference image subjected to statistical analysis. Spatial patterns of the QPF and Stage ifi images, and the difference images were analyzed to determine regions of concurrence, disparity and trends of these.

Subject Headings: Spatial data | Statistics | Spatial analysis | Forecasting | Rainfall | Radar | Information systems | Oklahoma | United States

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