Runoff Forecasting Using a Local Approximation Method

by A. W. Jayawardena,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: North American Water and Environment Congress & Destructive Water


Forecasting of hydrological events, particularly floods, is an important topic of concern for hydrologists. Flood hazards can be prevented or their effects minimized if prior warning of impending flooding events can be issued. The traditional methods of hydrological forecasting using the time-series approach involve ARMA modeling, Transfer Function modeling, Kalman Filtering, and Adaptive ARMA modeling. Adaptive modeling approach has the potential for describing some of the non-linearities present in the catchment runoff process in the form of time varying model parameters. In all these approaches, a single model that is expected to be globally valid is sought for the entire data series.

Subject Headings: Hydrologic models | Forecasting | Floods | Approximation methods | Runoff | Hydrology | Time series analysis

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