Uncertainty Analysis of Reservoir Sedimentation

by Hyun-Suk Shin,
Jose D. Salas, (M.ASCE),

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: North American Water and Environment Congress & Destructive Water


In estimating reservoir sedimentation, a number of uncertainties arise. These are related to annual streamfiow, sediment load, sediment particle size, trap efficiency, and reservoir operation. Monte Carlo simulation is used herein to quantify the uncertainty of reservoir sedimentation. The proposed procedure has been applied to the Kenny Reservoir at White River, Colorado. The results show that streamfiow and sediment inflow are the most important factors determining the uncertainty of reservoir sedimentation. The effect of each uncertain factor taken individually and taken in combinations, on the uncertainty of accumulated sediment, have been examined.

Subject Headings: Sediment | Reservoirs | Uncertainty principles | Particle size distribution | Inflow | Streamflow | Sediment loads | Colorado | United States

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