Uncertainty in Comparative Analysis with Continuous Nonpoint Source Pollution Models

by Dipmani Kumar,
Conrad D. Heatwole,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: North American Water and Environment Congress & Destructive Water


There have been few attempts to quantify the impact of parameter uncertainty in comparative analysis with continuous nonpoint source pollution models. This paper presents the results of a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation study carried out to quantify the impact of parameter uncertainty on relative pesticide losses under alternative land management systems employing the GLEAMS model. The results indicate a comparative analysis carried out at different exceedence probabilities may result in different conclusions, and it is therefore important to determine through experimental studies and expert opinion the appropriate risk level on which to base decisions.

Subject Headings: Uncertainty principles | Comparative studies | Nonpoint pollution | Risk management | Parameters (statistics) | Monte Carlo method | Pesticides | Land use

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