Health Risk Sensitivity to Variable and Uncertain Parameters

by Reed M. Maxwell,
Susan D. Pelmulder, (A.M.ASCE),

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: North American Water and Environment Congress & Destructive Water


A methodology is presented that attempts to quantify the effects of individual variability and parameter uncertainty in a groundwater-driven health risk assessment. Two modeling approaches are considered for predicting chemical fate and transport; one based on effective parameters, the other based on heterogeneous, spatially correlated parameters. The results from each approach is linked to a stochastic exposure model to yield human health risk. The exposure model includes individual variability and the results are cumulative surfaces of risk. Cuts in this risk surface (percentiles of both variability and uncertainty) are presented, and their regulatory implications described.

Subject Headings: Health hazards | Public health and safety | Parameters (statistics) | Uncertainty principles | Stochastic processes | Groundwater pollution | Chemicals

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