Real-Time Flood Forecasting Using Adaptive Estimation

by Dong Kug Jeong, Hannam Univ, Taejon, Republic of Korea,
Ben Chie Yen, (F.ASCE), Hannam Univ, Taejon, Republic of Korea,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Hydraulic Engineering


The proposed flood forecasting system combines a flood routing model with a parameter estimation model. The flood routing model utilizes φ-index to determine the effective rainfall and a series of nonlinear cascading reservoirs to represent the storage and translation effects in flood routing. In the parameter estimation model the system states and parameters are treated with the extended state-space formulation. The extended Kalman filter is adopted to estimate the states and parameters. A sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the relative significance of the parameters. Insensitive parameters are treated as constants and parameters that are mutually correlated are combined in a simplified form.

Subject Headings: Parameters (statistics) | Floods | Forecasting | Adaptive systems | Flood routing | Sensitivity analysis | Kalman filters | Filters

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