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Evaluating the Steady State Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model for the High Aswan Dam

by H. Abdelkader, Colorado State Univ, Fort Collins, United States,
J. Labadie, Colorado State Univ, Fort Collins, United States,
D. Fontane, Colorado State Univ, Fort Collins, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water Policy and Management: Solving the Problems

Abstract:

The paper describes the results of a study to critically evaluate and test the Steady State Stochastic Dynamic Programming model (SSDP). Whenever a reservoir computer model is developed, it is subject to three types of errors: conceptual implementation and application. Conceptual errors can occur due to flaws in the theoretical basis for the technique. Implementation errors can occur due to mistakes in computer logic and computer coding. Application errors can occur due to incorrect selection of the input parameters. This study developed an evaluation process to identify all three types of potential errors using sensitivity analysis runs with both the dynamic programming model and a reservoir simulation model for the High Aswan Dam. Another dynamic programming model of the High Aswan Dam was developed using the generalized stochastic dynamic programming software package, named CSUDP. This second dynamic programming model was also used for comparison purposes. A significant difficulty in the original formulation of the objective function of the model based upon an average cost per period criterion is discussed. Replacing the original objective function with one based upon a total cost criterion yielded desirable results.

Subject Headings: Computer programming | Dynamic models | Sensitivity analysis | Dams | Stochastic processes | Errors (statistics) | Simulation models

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