Real-Time Forecast and Its Use for Bradley Lake Project

Shen, Yung Y.; Nibler, Gerald J.; Marchegiani, Eric A.; ,

Real-Time Forecast and Its Use for Bradley Lake Project

by Yung Y. Shen, Stone & Webster Engineering Corp, Denver, United States,
Gerald J. Nibler, Stone & Webster Engineering Corp, Denver, United States,
Eric A. Marchegiani, Stone & Webster Engineering Corp, Denver, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Engineering Hydrology

Abstract:

A forecast model was developed to assist the project operator to make a realistic prediction of lake inflow and to optimize the water usage in Bradley Lake which has an active storage depth of 100 feet. Real-time data are collected at five stations within the Bradley River Basin. The data of temperature, precipitation, and stream gage observations are transmitted to the Alaska River Forecast Center (AKRFC) of the National Weather Service in Anchorage, Alaska. The AKRFC will issue a short term (two weeks period) as well as a long term (up to six months period) streamflow forecast for four sub-areas in the basin. In conjunction with the use of the forecast model, a reservoir operational model was also developed. Based on the forecast streamflow from each sub-area and utility's energy demand, the operational model will predict the hourly and average daily lake water level, daily generated energy, lake water level at the end of forecast period, and the total energy generated during the forecast period. This will assist the project operator to maximize the usage of lake storage so that the lake water level will not exceed the uncontrolled spillway crest or drop below the minimum allowable level.

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