Intercity Travel Demand Forecasting for the Windsor-Quebec City Corridor

by James H. Herendeen, Jr., Gannett Fleming, Inc, Harrisburg, United States,
David J. Schellinger, Gannett Fleming, Inc, Harrisburg, United States,
Myung-Hak Sung, Gannett Fleming, Inc, Harrisburg, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: High Speed Ground Transportation Systems I: Planning and Engineering


Travel demand forecasts were required for the 600-mile-long Quebec City - Windsor Canada Corridor to test alternative rail systems including high speed rail. The approach involved application of the model structure developed for the Pennsylvania High Speed Ground Transportation Study featuring a combined trip generation-trip distribution model capable of estimating induced travel. An extensive model calibration/validation effort was undertaken. Data describing socioeconomic, transportation system and travel characteristics for the base year (1988) were used to calibrate the model. Transportation system performance data for the base year were used to validate the model chain. Projections of socioeconomic and transportation system variables were then used to estimate future transportation system use. The procedures used in model calibration/validation are discussed in detail and the results of the effort are described.

Subject Headings: Interurban travel | Rail transportation | Trip distribution | Travel demand | Mathematical models | Forecasting | Transportation corridors | Canada | Quebec | Pennsylvania | United States

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