Recent Improvements in the LLNL PSHA Methodology

by Jean Savy, Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Structural Engineering in Natural Hazards Mitigation


For the purpose of comparison, the LLNL PSHA methodology is defined as the 1989 version developed under contract for the NRC. Additional work on a series of subsequent projects for DOE and NRC have lead to a number of substantial modifications in the methodology. The most important modifications are both in the technique of elicitation of the expert opinions and in the modeling of the uncertainty in the recurrence of earthquakes and in the uncertainty in the ground motion estimation. Initial tests of the methodology show a reduction in the estimate of the seismic hazard at nuclear plant sites in the Eastern U.S.

Subject Headings: Ground motion | Occupational safety | Seismic tests | Uncertainty principles | Earthquakes | Geohazards | Power plants | Nuclear power

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