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Risk Based Decision Support Model for Water Delivery Systems Subject to Natural Hazards

by M. A. Cassaro, Univ of Louisville, Louisville, United States,
M. J. Cassaro, Univ of Louisville, Louisville, United States,
R. K. Ragade, Univ of Louisville, Louisville, United States,
S. Alexander, Univ of Louisville, Louisville, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Lifeline Earthquake Engineering in the Central and Eastern U.S.

Abstract:

This paper presents a prototype model for analysis of potential damage and risk to water company systems in regions subject to earthquakes. Other hazards that produce loss to water distribution systems include: cold temperatures, floods, high wind, and tornado. Damage and loss produced by these events are incorporated into a risk model that considers repair and replacement cost, consideration of down time and loss due to reduced flow below demand levels. The model incorporates GIS, expert systems, and knowledge base tools to create a risk management tool that is capable of being updated with recent natural hazard records while maintaining current information on water system delivery facilities. A component of the model permits analysis of system effects for emergency response following a hazard event. Input of field observation of system damage during a natural hazard event permits flow analysis and supports decisions for setting priorities for repair.

Subject Headings: Water supply systems | Risk management | Expert systems | Natural disasters | Information systems | Decision support systems | Systems management

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