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Enhancing Decision Analysis Techniques for Lunar Base Construction Research

by Walter W. Boles, Texas A&M Univ, College Station, United States,
David B. Ashley, Texas A&M Univ, College Station, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Engineering, Construction, and Operations in Space III

Abstract:

The usefulness of decision analysis concepts applied to lunar base construction research has been demonstrated [Boles 1990]. During the referenced work the authors realized that further advancements in the concepts of decision analysis would greatly improve its use as a tool in lunar base construction research. The concept of 'the expected value of perfect information' provides quantitative evidence for an upper limit on the amount of resources that should be expended in gathering more-accurate information. There is no procedure, however, to examine the value and associated cost of increasingly-accurate information. The objective of this paper is to conceptually present a method for evaluating the value of more-accurate information and the cost of obtaining it over a continuous spectrum. If one can calculate the value and estimate the cost of obtaining various degrees of accuracy, one can determine the level of accuracy that is economically justifiable to achieve. It is concluded that analyzing further research requirements in this way will lead to a more-efficient allocation of resources for lunar base construction equipment and methods research and development.

Subject Headings: Space construction | Construction methods | Construction equipment | Space colonies | Model accuracy | Benefit cost ratios | Resource allocation

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