Oceanic CO₂ Uptake and Future Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations

by Tsung-Hung Peng, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water Quality Issues at Fossil Fuel Plants

Abstract:

The global pattern of water column inventories of bomb-produced ¹⁴C suggests that an upwelling of bomb ¹⁴C-free water takes place in the Antarctic, northern Pacific, and equatorial regions, whereas a downwelling of bomb ¹⁴C-rich surface waters occurs in the temperature oceans and northern Atlantic. A global model of the closed ocean-atmosphere system is constructed on the basis of these dynamic flows for the purpose of estimating the oceanic uptake of excess CO₂. To produce a close match between the historical pattern of atmospheric CO₂ predicted by the model and that observed in the Siple ice core and the Mauna Loa record requires that a net release of 90 ? 10¹⁵ g of carbon from the terrestrial ecosystem be posited for the period 1800-1990, in addition to fossil fuel CO₂ input. It is estimated that the ocean takes up, on average 2.4-2.6 ? 10¹⁵ of anthropogenic carbon each year. This net flux of CO₂ into the ocean is equivalent to 44% of the estimated total for anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. The model uses four scenarios of future CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel consumption and tropical deforestation to predict atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Although the resulting patterns of predicted CO₂ levels are similar to those in the report given by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the uptake of CO₂ from fossil fuel in the model is more efficient than that in the general box-diffusion models used by IPCC; that is, all predictions from the model are lower than those given by IPCC.

Subject Headings: Seas and oceans | Non-renewable energy | Explosions | Temperature effects | Emissions | Climate change | Carbon fibers

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