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Forecasting Behavioral Response to a Repository from Stated Intent Data

by D. Easterling, Univ of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, United States,
H. Kunreuther, Univ of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, United States,
V. Morwitz, Univ of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: High Level Radioactive Waste Management 1991

Abstract:

To forecast repository-induced behavior from surveys of behavioral intention, we develop a model of the relation between stated intent and actual propensity. This model relies heavily on the notion of a latent true intent score. We also consider a number of factors that cause true intent to be, on average, a biased indicator of propensity. The forecasting strategy is applied to a survey of convention planners to estimate the proportion of conventions that Las Vegas would lose following various repository scenarios.

Subject Headings: Radioactive wastes | Forecasting | Waste disposal | Economic factors | Public opinion and participation | Filters

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