Scenario Evolution: Interaction Between Event Tree Construction and Numerical Analyses

Barr, G. E.; Barnard, R. W.; Dockery, H. A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A. T.; ,

Scenario Evolution: Interaction Between Event Tree Construction and Numerical Analyses

by G. E. Barr, Sandia Natl Lab, Albuquerque, United States,
R. W. Barnard, Sandia Natl Lab, Albuquerque, United States,
H. A. Dockery, Sandia Natl Lab, Albuquerque, United States,
E. Dunn, Sandia Natl Lab, Albuquerque, United States,
A. T. MacIntyre, Sandia Natl Lab, Albuquerque, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: High Level Radioactive Waste Management 1991

Abstract:

Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, we discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees.

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