Stochastic Modeling of Monthly Flows in Streams of Arid Regions

by Jose D. Salas, Colorado State Univ, Fort Collins, United States,
Mohamed Chebaane, Colorado State Univ, Fort Collins, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Hydraulics/Hydrology of Arid Lands (H?AL)

Abstract:

A new stochastic model is presented herein which is applicable to simulating monthly flows of streams in arid regions. The model enables one to reproduce the percentage of zero flows in each month, the monthly mean, variance, and lag-one autocorrelation of the intermittent flows as well as the average skewness coefficient throughout the year. The model considers the intermittent monthly flow process as a product of a periodic binary discrete process times a periodic continuous process. Both discrete and continuous processes are periodic first order autoregressive. The model developed was fitted to the monthly intermittent streamflow data from Arroyo Trabuco Creek in California. It has been shown that the flows generated based on the proposed model resemble closely the key monthly historical statistics.

Subject Headings: Streamflow | Stochastic processes | Flow simulation | Autoregressive models | Arid lands | Statistics | Simulation models | California | United States

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