A Multi-Level Contour Method for Tracking and Forecasting Rain Fields of Severe Storms by Weather Radars

by Z. Q. Chen, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Davis, United States,
M. L. Kavvas, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Davis, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Hydraulics/Hydrology of Arid Lands (H²AL)


A new automated method is developed in order to track and predict in short-term (15 min-1 hr lead times) the evolution of rain fields in time and space, as observed by weather radars. First the rain field is decomposed into simple, tractable elements. Then a statistical adaptive forecasting scheme is developed in order to predict the changes in each of these elements in time. The composition of these elements forms the complete rain field with respect to its spatial configuration, location and rain intensity texture at each prediction lead time. The method has been applied to the conventional and doppler digital weather radar data of rain fields. Some application results are given.

Subject Headings: Rainfall | Radar | Forecasting | Storms | Tracking | Statistics | Rainfall intensity | Adaptive systems

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