Effect of Errors in Rainfall Measurements on Real-Time Forecasting Via On-Line Conceptual Models

by Baldassare Bacchi, Politecnico di Milano, Italy,
Armando Brath, Politecnico di Milano, Italy,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Hydraulic Engineering


The paper analyzes the issue of the choice between off-line and on-line use of lumped conceptual models for real-time flood forecasting. The effects of the adaptive use in the presence of errors in areal rainfall input are analyzed, by means of some synthetic experiments. Although a final verdict cannot be pronounced, it is shown that continous recalibration can result in biased and highly variable parameter estimates if rainfall measurements are corrupted by noise.

Subject Headings: Errors (statistics) | Forecasting | Rainfall | Floods | Rainfall-runoff relationships | Computer analysis | Computer models | Stochastic processes

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