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Risk Management of the Ottawa River System

by Jean-Claude Rassam, Hydro-Quebec Service Production, Canada,
G. A. Nix, Hydro-Quebec Service Production, Canada,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Computerized Decision Support Systems for Water Managers

Abstract:

The Ottawa River System is a large-scale and complex system comprising 30 major reservoirs and 43 generating stations and has a long history of flooding that extends throughout the basin. A risk management model applicable to large scale water resources systems was developed. This model is based on Monte Carlo simulations to test the exceedances of zero-flood-damage levels for given optimal releases. The simulations have to meet two performance criteria, otherwise the releases are modified. This article reviews current techniques in risk management, describes the system and the risk management model. It also reports on the real time tests of an abridged version of the model during the spring flood of 1988.

Subject Headings: Risk management | Floods | Water resources | Simulation models | River systems | Optimization models | Monte Carlo method

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