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Monte Carlo Simulations of Uncertainties in Risk Assessments of Superfund Sites Using Crystal Ball?

by David E. Burmaster, Alceon Corp, United States,
Katherine von Stackelberg, Alceon Corp, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Environmental Engineering

Abstract:

Most health risk assessments for Superfund sites combine a series of worst case assumptions to derive a 'point estimate' of risk that is 'conservative,' i.e., protective of public health. By setting the 'bias' high enough to dominate the uncertainty in each step, the risk assessment considers scenarios that will rarely if ever happen. This paper presents methods for uncertainty analysis using Crystal Ball (TM) for Monte Carlo simulations. The program combines thousands of realizations for the PDFs of each input variable yielding a final probability distribution rather than a single number.

Subject Headings: Public health and safety | Health hazards | Waste sites | Risk management | Monte Carlo method | Uncertainty principles | Site investigation

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