Hydrologiic Risk Analysis for Small Dams in Missouri

by Arthur R. Kalmes, Barr Engineering, United States,
R. Lee Peyton, Barr Engineering, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Hydraulic Engineering


A methodology is presented for calculating the risk cost for a dam based on probabilities for rainfall depth, antecedent moisture condition, rainfall time distribution, initial reservoir level and overtopping performance. The methodology is applied to a small dam in Missouri. Strategies are discussed for selecting spillway designs based on the risk analysis results. Using minimum incremental risk cost as the design criterion resulted in a conservative design consistent with State of Missouri existing criteria. Using the design that minimized the sum of the incremental risk cost and the annualized modification cost resulted in a design capacity much less than currently required by the State of Missouri. The sensitivity of the design to assumptions made in the analysis is shown.

Subject Headings: Risk management | Hydrology | Dams | Rainfall | Probability | Moisture | Probability distribution | Reservoirs | Missouri | United States

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