Risk Assessment of Sea Bottom Scouring Using Fuzzy Set Theory

by Charles C. Thiel, Jr., Forell/Elsesser Engineers, San, Francisco, CA, USA,
Jogeshwar P. Singh, Forell/Elsesser Engineers, San, Francisco, CA, USA,
Auguste C. Boissonnade, Forell/Elsesser Engineers, San, Francisco, CA, USA,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Civil Engineering in the Arctic Offshore


An approach to the assessment of risk to buried pipelines from ice gouging is developed using Fuzzy Set Theory. Statistical procedures currently used to analyze ice gouge data are inadequate in that they do not assess the site-specific risk, i. e. , the influence of bottom soil types, water depths, or the degree of site protection. Evaluation of regional hazards using statistical procedures alone can over- or underestimate the site-specific hazards. Analyzing existing data with more sophisticated methods may allow ice gouging frequencies to be determined with more confidence. Based on observations of the gouges that cross different soil horizons and their modifications with time, it appears that Fuzzy Set Theory is well suited to process this type of data to develop site-specific ice gouge risk estimates.

Subject Headings: Risk management | Ice | Fuzzy logic | Buried pipes | Data analysis | Sea ice | Sea floor

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