Simulation Approach to Assess Highway Performance

by Fred L. Mannering, Doctoral Candidate in Civ. Engrg.; Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, Mass. 02139,
Kumares C. Sinha, (M.ASCE), Prof. of Civ. Engrg.; Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, Ind. 47907,

Serial Information: Transportation Engineering Journal of ASCE, 1982, Vol. 108, Issue 1, Pg. 71-86

Document Type: Journal Paper


A procedure is presented that can be utilized to estimate the impacts of alternative financing policies and other highway related factors on future highway system performance. The approach is to first simulate the present highway performance characteristics, such as pavement condition, volume/capacity ratio, lane width and so on, and then apply a series of equations to forecast the impacts of total vehicle and commercial vehicle travel growth, future vehicle weight distributions, the availability of future highway improvement funds, and inflationary pressures. The proposed procedure provides projections of highway performance with minimal data requirements and is designed with considerable flexibility to facilitate present usage and future modification.

Subject Headings: Vehicle-pavement interaction | Vehicle impacts | Highway and road design | Highways and roads | Highway and road conditions | Financing | Pavement condition | Forecasting

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