Gates' Bidding Model—A Monte Carlo Experiment?

by Michael Fuerst,

Serial Information: Journal of the Construction Division, 1977, Vol. 103, Issue 4, Pg. 647-651

Document Type: Journal Paper


Recently, Gates described several simulation experiments in an attempt to demonstrate the superiority of Gates. model over Friedman.s model to determine the probability of winning a construction contract letting. This note explains why Gates. paper misrepresents Friedman.s model; does not display a sound comprehension of the basic tenets f probability; misinterprets the results from an unnecessary simulation; and wrongly pronounces the validity of Gates. model. The reader is assumed to have read Gates. paper, as references to equations and tables in it shall be made.

Subject Headings: Simulation models | Bids | Monte Carlo method | Probability | Contracts | Monaco | Europe

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