Presenting Trends in Lake Eutrophication

by Stanley Hershman,
Samuel O. Russell,

Serial Information: Journal of the Environmental Engineering Division, 1976, Vol. 102, Issue 6, Pg. 1281-1285

Document Type: Journal Paper


This technical note presents a procedure that was developed for defining probable trends in water quality in Skaha Lake, British Columbia, Canada, a lake that is becoming eutrophic. The method, is based on the concepts of Bayesian decision theory. It takes uncertainty into account, provides a way of combining information obtained from individual experts, and presents the results in a way that can be generally understood. The procedure involves categorizing the water quality in discrete states; establishing a relationship between nutrient loading and water quality; and combining it with nutrient forecasts under various management alternatives to obtain estimates of probable future quality states.

Subject Headings: Water quality | Quality control | Lakes | Eutrophication | Bayesian analysis | Uncertainty principles | Nutrient loads | Load factors | Canada | British Columbia

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