Choice of Failure Probabilities

by Carl J. Turkstra,

Serial Information: Journal of the Structural Division, 1967, Vol. 93, Issue 6, Pg. 189-200

Document Type: Journal Paper


The choice of an optimum level of structural safety for one type of failure is formulated on the basis of the minimum expected loss criterion applied to an idealized basic scheme. Limits of sensitivity to initial costs are introduced and shown to lead to limits on sensitivity to failure probability. A rigorous decision is compared to an approximate criterion based on effectively zero failure probability for a variety of cases. In many practical situations the simple criterion is at worst a slightly conservative approximation to the formal solution.

Subject Headings: Failure analysis | Probability | Structural safety | Structural failures | Approximation methods

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