Predicting The Modal Split In Pittsburgh

by Louis E. Keefer,

Serial Information: Journal of the Highway Division, 1963, Vol. 89, Issue 1, Pg. 13-26

Document Type: Journal Paper


During the preparation of a regional transportation for 1980, the Pittsburgh Area Transportation Study was required to predict future tripmaking as distributed between the automobile and mass transit. It was found that the basic amount of transit tripmaking could be estimated by traffic zone using such independent variables as car ownership, net residential density, and distance from the central business district. Present transit travel behavior was found to be principally determined by the individual and his home environment rather than the transit system itself. Estimation techniques tended to treat transit as a special travel service for a special kind of traveler. Only rapid transit was felt to increase the basic prediction of transit use; routine improvements to the surface transit system have little effect on the number of riders. Transit should not be considered as competitive with the automobile. Finally, where there is the choice of travel mode, it will always favor the means of travel that is most instantaneous, independent, and self-directed; the automobile comes closest to satisfying these criteria.

Subject Headings: Automobiles | Rapid transit systems | Modal split | Travel patterns | Travel modes | Transportation studies | Traffic volume | Business districts | Pittsburgh | Pennsylvania | United States

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