Grade-Crossing Accident Prediction

by Lawrence W. Margler, Dir.; Environmental Scis., Winzler and Kelly Consulting Engrs. Eureka, Calif.,
Michael B. Rogozen, Staff Scientist; Energy-Environment Systems Div., Sci. Applications, Inc., Los Angeles, Calif.,

Serial Information: Transportation Engineering Journal of ASCE, 1980, Vol. 106, Issue 3, Pg. 257-264

Document Type: Journal Paper


This paper reports on a study of the effects of increased coal-train traffic on grade-crossing accidents. The Coleman-Stewart model was used to predict infuries and deaths at grade crossings attributable to hypothetically increased unit-train volume between four specific origin-destination pairs. A model developed by the Florida Department of Transportation was examined as an alternative. For the total hypothetical coal transport of 70.5 million tons (6.39x10¹0 kg) per year, increases of about 8 deaths (21%) and 30 injuries (20%) per year were predicted. Such predictions are route-dependent and cannot be extended from one route to another using simple accident rates based upon number of trains per day, tonnage, or ton-mileage.

Subject Headings: Traffic accidents | Accidents | Coal | Routing (transportation) | Traffic analysis | Freight transportation

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