Continuous Dynamic Models for Traffic Indices

by Neil W. Polhemus, Asst. Prof. of Civ. Engrg.; Princeton Univ., Princeton, N.J.,

Serial Information: Transportation Engineering Journal of ASCE, 1979, Vol. 105, Issue 6, Pg. 639-650

Document Type: Journal Paper


The dynamic behavior of traffic indices in continuous time is modeled by a linear differential equation with stochastic forcing function. The general model postulated is that of a continuous stationary autoregressive moving average process. Estimates of the parameters in the continuous model are obtained from their correspondence to parameters in a discrete time model fitted to uniformly sampled traffic data. The technique is demonstrated on a time series of aircraft concentration in a low altitude air traffic control sector.

Subject Headings: Dynamic models | Traffic models | Air traffic control | Stationary processes | Parameters (statistics) | Differential equations | Autoregressive moving average models | Time series analysis

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