Reliability of Seismic Resistance Predictions

by Rudolf F. Drenick, Prof. of System Engrg.; Polytechnic Inst. of New York, Brooklyn, N.Y.,
Chung-Bang Yun, Amoco Production Research Center, Tulsa, Okla.; formerly, Post Doctoral Research Fellow, Polytechnic Inst. of New York, Brooklyn, N.Y.,

Serial Information: Journal of the Structural Division, 1979, Vol. 105, Issue 10, Pg. 1879-1891

Document Type: Journal Paper


This paper explores the effect of uncertainties in the information regarding the ground-motion statistics during an earthquake, and finds that they are large enough to preclude sufficient confidence from being placed in many predictions of earthquake resistance. It recommends that the usual all-probabilistic approach be replaced with a suitable combination of probabilistic and worst-case analyses. It finally reports on a study in which this combination was explored. It appears to be sufficiently successful to encourage consideration of the combined approach.

Subject Headings: Seismic tests | Seismic effects | Load and resistance factor design | Earthquakes | Uncertainty principles | Ground motion | Statistics | Probability

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