Simulation of Construction Project Duration

by Robert I. Carr, (M.ASCE), Prof. of Civ. Engrg.; Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich.,

Serial Information: Journal of the Construction Division, 1979, Vol. 105, Issue 2, Pg. 117-128

Document Type: Journal Paper


MUD (model for uncertainty determination) will simulate the progress under uncertainty of the typical construction project on which the activity durations are not independent of each other. Monte Carlo simulation models the effects of uncertainties that are independent of calendar date. Daily progress under uncertain weather is simulated using historical weather data. Activity criticalities are computed for the simulated activity times. The samples from multiple simulations of a project are combined by MUD to calculate a range estimate (mean and standard duration) for activity and project durations, times, and criticality. A small example project illustrates some of the capabilities of MUD.

Subject Headings: Mud | Uncertainty principles | Construction management | Simulation models | Monte Carlo method | Weather forecasting | Monaco | Europe

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