Evaluation of Probability of Seismic Liquefaction

by John M. Ferritto, (M.ASCE), Sr. Research Engr.; Civ. Engrg. Lab., Naval Construction Battalion Center, Port Hueneme, Calif.,

Serial Information: Journal of the Technical Councils of ASCE, 1977, Vol. 103, Issue 1, Pg. 65-73

Document Type: Journal Paper


A methodology for the computation of probability of seismically induced liquefaction of saturated cohesionless soils is presented. Using available information on soil strength and expected earthquake ground motion, a Monte Carlo technique is used to predict the probability of liquefaction. Using site earthquake recurrence information, the probability of an earthquake causing liquefaction may be determined. A criteria is proposed for the selection of a bridge site to limit damage from liquefaction.

Subject Headings: Soil liquefaction | Probability | Earthquakes | Seismic tests | Seismic effects | Saturated soils | Cohesionless soils | Soil strength | Monaco | Europe

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