Storm Tide Frequencies for Cape Fear River

by Vance A. Myers, Branch Chf.; Special Studies Branch, Office of Hydr., National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Md.,
James E. Overland, Physical Scientist; National Meteorological Center, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, D.C.,

Serial Information: Journal of the Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Division, 1977, Vol. 103, Issue 4, Pg. 519-535

Document Type: Journal Paper


Frequencies of storm tides, principally from hurricanes, in the Cape Fear River, North Carolina, below Wilmington are calculated by applying two previously developed numerical-hydrodynamic models to simulating surges from a large number of hypothetical hurricanes, chosen so as to collectively represent all climatologically expected hurricanes. The models are the continental shelf model of Jelesnianski and a model for the Cape Fear River by the writers. The recurrence interval of each hypothetical hurricane and its simulated tide is derived by combining the probabilities of the several parameters that define each storm. A methodology for carrying out the frequency evaluation economically is illustrated. The 100-yr return period tide level at Wilmington is estimated to be between 10 ft and 11 ft mean sea level.

Subject Headings: Hurricanes and typhoons | Hydrologic models | Numerical models | Storms | Tides | Rivers and streams | Storm surges | Simulation models | Delaware | United States | North Carolina

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