ASMUG - Simulation Model of Urban Growth

by R. Paul Mason, (M.ASCE), Asst. Prof.; Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Union Coll., Schenectady, N.Y.,

Serial Information: Journal of the Urban Planning and Development Division, 1977, Vol. 103, Issue 1, Pg. 13-25

Document Type: Journal Paper


While differing substantially in structure, past attempts at mathematical models of urban development have generally had certain characteristics in common. They have usually: (1)Operated at a relatively low level of spatial aggregation (of the order of a census tract); (2)been based on accessibility as a determinant of location; and (3)have assumed that past trends will be continued with little change. In contrast, the ASMUG model: (1)Operates at a higher level of spatial aggregation (of order 1 mile); (2)includes such factors as housing quality, amenities and tax rates as well as accessibility; and (3)reacts to policy changes by simulating the behavior of a cross section of the area's households through time. Verification of the model was performed by simulating the behavior of Erie County, New York in the period 1960 to 1970.

Subject Headings: Simulation models | Urban development | Structural models | Structural behavior | Mathematical models | Housing | Taxation | Cross sections | New York | United States

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